2024 Market Outlook and 2023 Year in Review

2024 Market Outlook: What's Trending Next

The direction of mortgage rates is key to where the housing market is headed in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). TRREB is forecasting that:

• Home sales will reach the 77,000 mark in 2024, marking a substantial improvement compared to the less than 66,000 transactions in 2023.

• The projected average selling price will move closer to $1.17 million this year. This would be the second highest mark on record but still below the 2022 peak.

2023 Year in Review: A Look Back

Sales, prices, and new listings results in 2023 showed decreases when compared to 2022:

• Home sales dropped 12.1% from 75,047.

• New listings in 2023 were down 8.6% to 142,233.

• The average price of $1,126,604 for all home types decreased 5.4% from $1,190,749.

Preparing for Rising Immigration, the Demand for Affordable Rentals and Ownership Housing

TRREB partnered with Loyalist Public Affairs to unpack the need for comprehensive planning as the population increases and the housing supply dwindles. The key takeaways are:

• Although immigration contributes to housing demand, Canada’s aging population depends on immigrants to fill job vacancies and promote economic growth.

• Canada now has a larger share of people aged 55 to 64 than those aged 15 to 24, indicating the urgency of addressing the skills shortage.

• More immigration can bring significant benefits, but government policies must include a plan to ensure that newcomers have places to live that are affordable.

New Homes & Condos Review and Outlook

According to Altus Group, 2023 new home sales got off to a slow start, following the trend of the last half of 2022. The highlights are:

• New condominium apartment sales bore the brunt of the slowdown in 2023.

• Benchmark prices slipped by over 15% since their peak in early 2022.

• If the Bank of Canada holds and possibly lowers interest rates, stronger demand in the new homes market will likely occur.

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This article was originally published on the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board in February 2024. TRREB | Market Year in Review (trrebwire.ca)