Market Report | October 2024

The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) real estate market witnessed a remarkable surge in home sales this October, reflecting a strong year-over-year increase. This resurgence was coupled with a moderate rise in new listings, signaling a tighter market compared to the same period in 2023. As market conditions continue to evolve, we see signs of renewed buyer confidence, fuelled by a changing interest rate landscape.

A Strong Sales Surge Amidst Rate Cuts

According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), GTA REALTORS® reported 6,658 home sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in October 2024, marking a substantial 44.4% increase compared to the 4,611 sales recorded in October 2023. While new listings climbed by 4.3% year-over-year to 15,328, the relative pace of new supply growth fell short of sales activity, contributing to a tightening market. On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales also saw an increase compared to September, further emphasizing this momentum.

Affordability Improves, Buyers Return

Jennifer Pearce, President of TRREB, noted that lower borrowing costs and stable home prices have been key drivers for buyer activity in October. “While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate-cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace. The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity,” said Pearce.

Price Dynamics in the Market

The MLS® Home Price Index Composite benchmark experienced a 3.3% decline year-over-year in October 2024. However, the average selling price saw a slight 1.1% increase from October 2023, reaching $1,135,215. On a seasonally adjusted basis, average prices edged up compared to September, demonstrating some resilience in market pricing despite ample inventory.

Inventory Levels and Future Growth Trends

TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer commented on inventory levels and their implications for price growth. “Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for home buyers. This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

A Note on the Conod Market

While the broader housing market is showing encouraging signs of recovery, the condominium market in the City of Toronto continues to grapple with a high level of supply. Sales have moderately increased, reaching levels not seen since May 2024. This uptick may signal the start of a market recovery or reflect a delayed surge in activity as we move further into the autumn real estate season

Policy Changes to Support Affordability

TRREB CEO John DiMichele highlighted the importance of policy measures to enhance affordability. “Policymakers can further improve affordability by reducing taxes on home buyers. TRREB supports the Conservative Party of Canada pledge to remove the GST from the purchase of new homes sold for under $1 million as this is an encouraging step towards giving new home buyers desperately needed relief. Enhancing the rebate will not only make homes more affordable, but it will also increase the number of homes built,” said DiMichele. He further advocated for a phased-out rebate structure for homes between $1 million and $1.5 million to better reflect the realities of high-cost markets like the GTA and Vancouver.

Looking Ahead

The GTA real estate market remains dynamic, and as interest rate adjustments take further hold, the interplay between demand, supply, and policy changes will shape the path ahead. With improving affordability and a watchful eye on inventory levels, buyers and sellers alike should be prepared for market shifts as we head into 2025.

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